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  房价下跌希望恐将破灭 未来十年将更加“残酷”  
     
 
对于翘首期望房价下跌的中国居民来说,现实无疑是残酷的:据中国发改委日前公布的70个大中城市房屋销售价格指数显示,持续上涨的房价不但没有出现下降,而且继续攀升:今年前4个月,新建商品住房销售价格涨幅在6.0%左右波动,其中,4月份新建商品住房销售价格同比上涨5.3%,而且环比上涨0.7%,涨幅比上月高0.2个百分点。 

  不过,对于在绝望中希望未来房价将会下跌的中国居民来说,未来的十年之内似乎却更为残酷:上周二来自教育部的消息说,今年全国普通高校招生报名人数首次超过1000万,创历史新高。 


  报名参加高考人数与中国房价表面上似乎是风马牛不相及的两个问题,但事实上两者的关系却是如影随形。超1000万中国高考考生,基本是19岁左右的青少年,不管这些学生能不能全部考上大学,但他们都将在未来的1-4年进入中国的劳动力市场,而6-10年后,这些人都将进入婚嫁年龄,而且随着中国的城市化进程,这些人中的绝大多数今后都将集中在中国的城市中,从而支撑着中国房市的需求。 


  更令人沮丧的是,据教育部考试中心主任戴家干介绍,明年参加高考的考生人数可能将继续刷新今年的纪录。同样道理,这些人都是2-5年后全部进入劳动力市场,7-11年后进入适婚年龄。 


  如果追溯2002年以来中国报名参加高考的人数,结果或许更令人灰心。2002年全国参加高考报名人数仅为527万人,而2003年却攀至613万人,到2004年升至723万人,2005年跃为867万人,而2006年则高达950万人,除去重复计算的历届生,近年来报考人数仍是一年一个台阶。虽然明年中国参加高考的考生将是最近几年的波峰,但此后肯定也不会骤然下降。 


  可以想象,在目前青壮年的“就业高峰”远未到来之前,中国的房价已经被推高至不可承受之重,而一旦这些人口进入劳动力市场,中国房价的下跌空间肯定将被封死,虽然目前中国的房价已经是人人喊打。 


  当然,影响房价的因素还有很多,国家的调控政策、国际经济环境、经济周期的轮回等,都会直接或间接影响到房价的涨跌,但是从根本上看,最后决定着中国房价涨跌的关键,仍将是供给与需求的关系。 


  更为重要的是,在这些潜在劳动力的背后,却是一个很简单的宏观经济学定律:中国将在相当长时间保持着高储蓄率和巨额的经常项目顺差,目前困扰着中国的流动性过剩还将在相当长时间内延续,包括房市和股市的资产仍将被泛滥的资金重估。 


  以这些学生为例,很明显,这些人都是独生子女,如果等这些青少年参加工作,一家人基本上都是储蓄,而只有少许消费,这样中国的国民总储蓄将会进一步走高,如果中国的投资未能同步跟上,根据著名的国民经济恒等式,储蓄大于投资,最后就是贸易顺差。而且储蓄越多,顺差越大。 


  很显然,在人民币的汇率完全浮动之前,贸易顺差的结果,将是外汇占款的飙升,然后又是流动性泛滥、贷款膨胀,固定资产投资和资产价格又将是有米之炊。 


  虽然在中国对公众宣称房价继续上涨,需要一定的勇气,但是在目前的情况下,房价要想下跌,除非中国政府有回天之力,也许你不相信,但是现实将会告诉你。
 
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