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    工业厂房租金价格增长快于商业用房租金  
     
 

工业厂房租金价格增长快于商业用房租金  
但是对于工业地产股来说,虽然也是地产板块的重要成员之一,但却属于另类品种。一是因为其经营模式区别于目前市场主流地产股,因为目前市场主流地产股的经营模式是拿地、建房、出售,但工业地产股的经营模式则是拿地、盖厂房、出租。也就是说,主流地产股是靠销售房地产获得净利润,而工业地产股则主要是靠租赁、园区开发等获得净利润;二是行业景气不同。目前主流地产股面临着调控政策的压力,行业景气蒙上一层阴影。但工业地产则不同,一方面则由于国家对土地耕地的保护政策,意味着工业用地的供给相对紧张,另一方面则是由于我国重工业化的进程加快以及我国全球制造中心地位的确立,工业厂房的需求持续刚性提升,所以工业厂房的租金价格持续增长。据行业分析师的研究报告资料可知,自2001年三季度以来,工业厂房租金价格增长速度一直快于商业用房租金价格。


     正因为如此,工业地产股将分享双重发展动能:一是工业土地价格上涨所带来的资产重新估值的推动力。诚如前述,工业用地的长期需求曲线一直是向上的,因此,在工业用地供给增长曲线相对平缓的背景下,工业用地价格是持续走高的。二是工业厂房租金价格的上涨。近年来,随着重工业化进程,全国的工业厂房租金价格上涨曲线就有陡峭的趋势,所以,这意味着工业地产股既可以分享通货膨胀背景下的土地价格上涨的动能,也可以分享租金价格上涨动能。这就为工业地产股注入了持续的、充沛的上涨动能。


工业地产股或展新升浪


     正因为如此,笔者认为工业地产股已具备了展开新升浪的强劲基本面动能。不过,也有分析人士认为,基本面好未必能够走出主升浪,因为基本面强势与二级市场股价强势还缺少一个纽带,那就是资金的认同。也就是说,现在研判工业地产股的二级市场走势,还需要研判一下当前A股市场的资金偏好或者工业地产股的基本面题材能否得到机构资金的认同。


     就目前来看,笔者对此相对乐观。一是因为目前工业地产股符合市场的主流抽象思路——人民币升值。由于海外市场经验显示,本币升值均会带来本币资产价格的上涨,同为人民币升值受益概念股,航空运输股受制于高油价、主流地产的商品房开发股则受制于密集的宏观调控预期,而不受高油价限制也不受调控预期的工业地产股有望脱颖而出,成为人民币升值受益概念股的先锋,从而有望得到主流资金的青睐。


     二是因为工业地产股还具备创投概念、孵化器概念、会计报表资产重估等题材催化剂。因为目前工业地产股主要体现在开发园区业务,因此,持有大量的优质企业股权和大量的低价土地。而优质企业股权不仅仅可以获得稳定的投资收益,而且由于未来的创业板推出等因素,还拥有创投概念、孵化器概念。值得指出的是,工业地产股持有的土地及股权资产目前均以历史成本方式反映在财务报表中。而按照新会计准则,以上资产未来如通过市场公允价格记量,则将体现为资产增值及投资收益的大幅增加。因此,在考虑工业地产公司相对估值的同时,通过计算公司“隐蔽资产”增值的绝对估值方法也是挖掘其投资价值的重要方法。持有大量有低成本工业土地及优质股权的工业地产股极有可能得到资金认同。


     三是注资概念股。目前工业地产上市公司的控股股东大多为开发园区的主管部门或实体公司,属于典型的“小公司大集团”式的特征。行业分析师认为,控股股东拥有的资产实力是决定上市公司未来发展的资源基础。


     正因为如此,在实际操作中,建议投资者重点关注两类工业地产股:一是租金业务扩展或拥有优质公司股权的工业地产股,比如说深基地B的仓储出租业务持续增长,而且毛利率达到40%以上甚至更高,随着仓储基地规模的拓展,未来的业绩增长相对确定;二是已有定向增发、符合注资预期的工业地产股。海泰发展较为典型,控股股东以16元的价格认购定向增发股权,而目前市价也不过只有16.33元,具有极强的估值预期优势,也可低吸持有,类似个股还有空港股份、张江高科等品种。

 
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